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Examples reflected in the data
Projects such as Flink, Pulsar, Iceberg, and Arrow followed this route, entering with clear community structures and graduating soon after alignment work was complete.
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2. Typical ASF Path (1–2 Years)
This is the most common route. Projects start with a small but functional team, expand participation through ASF processes, and graduate once releases, governance, and diversity are stable. Progress is steady rather than fast, balancing learning and autonomy.
Typical characteristics
Initial core team with moderate external engagement
Public development and voting culture established within months
One or two releases per year after early setup
Mentors active but not dominant in decision-making
Examples
Druid, RocketMQ, and SeaTunnel show this pattern: consistent progress, gradual growth, and sustainable graduation after about two years.
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3. Emerging Community, Steady Growth
Many projects begin with a small founding team and use incubation to grow broader participation. Progress is measured in new committers, public discussions, and reliable releases rather than speed.
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Examples reflected in the data
Superset, Pinot, and ECharts showed this pattern with slow early progress followed by strong, sustainable communities.
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4. Complex Migration or Long-Term Incubation
Large or long-running codebases can require extensive IP clearance, infrastructure migration, or dependency review. These projects may take several years but often become strong ASF communities once established.
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Examples reflected in the data
NetBeans and IoTDB illustrate this path, where the technical migration was the dominant timeline factor.
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5. Withdrawal or Completion Outside Apache
Some communities determine that the ASF structure does not align with their preferred workflow or governance model. Withdrawal is a transparent conclusion that leaves both the project and the ASF in a clear position.
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Examples reflected in the data
Zipkin chose this outcome after maintaining active development outside the ASF structure.
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6. Graduation Followed by Quieter Activity
A small number of projects graduate successfully but later slow down or retire. This reflects the normal lifecycle of open-source technology as interests and ecosystems evolve.
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Examples reflected in the data
Projects such as Mesos, Trafodion, and MXNet followed this trajectory, each contributing valuable lessons in community lifecycle and sustainability.
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7. Extended Stewardship and Mentor Continuity
Some long-running incubations benefited from mentors who stayed engaged throughout, ensuring stability and eventual handoff to independent governance.
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These observations highlight that incubation outcomes depend on continued participation and transparency rather than project age, size, or sponsor.
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Summary Table
| Path | Typical Duration | Community Characteristics | Example Outcomes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Established community | Under 1 year | Multi-organisation, regular releases | Flink, Iceberg, Arrow |
| Typical ASF path | 1-2 years | moderate growth, stable governance | Druid, RoickerMQ, SeaTunnel |
| Emerging community | 1–3 years | Small start, growing diversity | Superset, Pinot, ECharts |
| Complex migration | 2–5 years | Large codebase, IP clearance focus | NetBeans, IoTDB |
| Withdrawal | Varies | Limited on-list activity | Zipkin |
| Graduation then quiet | 2–3 years | Strong at graduation, later slowdown | Mesos, MXNet |
| Extended mentorship | Several years | Consistent mentor involvement | Superset, ECharts |
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Incubation is about building trust, transparency, and shared ownership. Each path adds to the ASF’s collective understanding of how diverse communities grow and sustain themselves in the open.