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Examples reflected in the data
Projects such as Flink, Pulsar, Iceberg , and Arrow followed this route, entering with clear community structures and graduating soon after alignment work was complete.
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2. Typical ASF Path (1–2 Years)
This is the most common route. Projects start with a small but functional team, expand participation through ASF processes, and graduate once releases, governance, and diversity are stable. Progress is steady rather than fast, balancing learning and autonomy.
Typical characteristics
Initial core team with moderate external engagement
Public development and voting culture established within months
One or two releases per year after early setup
Mentors active but not dominant in decision-making
Examples
Druid,
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Pulsar and
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APISIX show this pattern: consistent progress, gradual growth, and sustainable graduation after about two years.
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3. Emerging Community, Steady Growth
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Examples reflected in the data
Superset, Pinot, Airflow and ECharts Kafka showed this pattern with slow early progress followed by strong, sustainable communities.
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These observations highlight that incubation outcomes depend on continued participation and transparency rather than project age, size, or sponsor.
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Summary Table
| Path | Typical Duration | Community Characteristics | Example Outcomes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Established community | Under 1 year | Multi-organisation, regular releases | Flink, Iceberg, Arrow |
| Typical ASF path | 1-2 years | moderate growth, stable governance | Druid, |
| Pulsar, |
| APISIX | ||
| Emerging community | 1–3 years | Small start, growing diversity |
| Pinot, |
| Airflow, |
| Kafka | |||
| Complex migration | 2–5 years | Large codebase, IP clearance focus | NetBeans, IoTDB |
| Withdrawal | Varies | Limited on-list activity | Zipkin |
| Graduation then quiet | 2–3 years | Strong at graduation, later slowdown | Mesos, MXNet, Trafodion |
| Extended mentorship | Several years | Consistent mentor involvement | Superset, ECharts |
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Incubation is about building trust, transparency, and shared ownership. Each path adds to the ASF’s collective understanding of how diverse communities grow and sustain themselves in the open.